Russia and China Are Not Friends
They're barely allies.
We like making monsters. It makes the story easier.
When we speak of Russia and China, we seem to imagine an enormous, united beast. They form a military and economic heft that stands squarely against the west. They are the antagonist. If the US slips, they will be waiting.
It’s neat. But a little too neat if you ask me.
China and Russia are both formidable. China with its economic heft, and Russia with its nuclear arsenal and its willingness to use force. They are unavoidable. But their supposed unity is a little hollow. One plus one, here, doesn’t equal two. It might not even be one and a half.
They are barely allies. And they are certainly not friends.
“This is a marriage of necessity, not love”
Look back long enough and it’s obvious. Russia was party to China’s ‘century of humiliation,’ where in the 19th century it annexed several territories in outer Manchuria.
The church of Marxist-Leninism wasn’t enough to reconcile the two.
Signed in 1950, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance, and Mutual Assistance was at least a solid improvement. Russia sent over experts and resources to help China develop its own nuclear weapons. The detonation in China erupted in 1964.
Suspicion seeped back in. Ideological rifts, border disputes, and rivalry corroded their relations. In 1969, it erupted another a month-long border conflict on their shared border. Hundreds were killed. By 1980, their treaty expired. Russia refused to renew it.
Only in 1989 was there a first formal meeting between the leaders of both countries— the first time in thirty years. Two years later, the Soviet Union was dissolved.
Mikhail Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping shaking it up like its 1989 (AFP: Catherine Henriette)
Today, they are aligned— more by exclusion, than by choice. Russia clings to China as an existential trading partner. China, wary of Western hostility, finds use in military partnership with Russia— they conduct join-military exercises, vote together in the UN Security Council, and scheme a financial system beyond the west.
This is a marriage of necessity, not love.
BRICS Leading the way earlier this month. (Alexander Nemenov/Pool AFP)
There is no mutual defence pact between them. Their armies have never even fought side by side. China has not openly supported Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Russia’s alleged pleas. China does not even recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea. In turn, Russia does not fully support its ambitions for Taiwan.
Economically, there is a stark imbalance. China is by far the larger trading partners, almost ten times the size of Russia’s economy. Russia has the raw material— and China is becoming their only customer. More and more it looks like dependence, not partnership.
Russia knows that Beijing would not give up its economic ties to the west for their friendship.
These relationships are fragile, and was made obvious with Iran. As a major player in the "‘alternative order," Iran sells its oil to China, drones to Russia, and joins their military exercises.
When Iran’s nuclear facilities were recently destroyed — with US intervention — their friends were awfully quiet. Beijing and Moscow offered no protection. They had plenty to say, but did nothing. Iran, in that moment, stood alone.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
This is the little flaw at the heart of the story. We are told these nations are joined in a common cause. That they form a firm bloc against the west. That they are the heirs of American decline. But if you probe just a little, you see the ties between them are weak indeed—made of circumstance, not meaning.
Individually, they should not be underestimated. Together, they are a little overdone.