Schonbrunn Landscape, 1916. Gustav Klimt.
By now, we’ve all seen the headlines: "Austria's far right eyes unprecedented election win,” claimed the BBC. It’s the latest episode in a familiar storyline about the rise of far-right populism in Europe. That’s not to say that the win of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) isn’t important. It’s just not the biggest issue.
The real story is a deeper trend: this is the first time in Austria’s post-war history that one of the two mainstream parties didn’t finish first. That is a political earthquake.
On Sunday, the FPO won the largest share of votes, beating the social democrats (SPO), the conservative People’s Party (OVP), and the Greens, who badly suffered as they did in the European elections. Now, the FPO has no secure path to power. As is the norm in Austria’s electoral system, without an outright majority, long negotiations will follow to form a coalition. And the OVP, who came second, have already ruled out a government led by the FPO leader.
The story isn’t about the FPO’s rise— that’s happened before. In fact, they have been part of Austrian governing coalitions quite a few times before, including in the 1980s, the 2000s, and most recently, from 2017 to 2019. That last affair ended in scandal due to evidence of outright corruption by the FPO’s leader, who was vice-chancellor at the time.
The far-right FPO getting into power is not news for Austria. What is bigger is that for the first time in Austria’s post-war democracy, one of the traditional mainstream parties failed to come first.
1. The End of the Mainstream
Austria’s post-war political landscape has been remarkably stable. Since the Second Republic was founded in 1945, two parties have dominated: the SPO on the left and the OVP on the right. Together, they have formed 11 grand coalitions.
But if you check out the distribution of votes below, you will see these two historical parties falling. What is emerging is a whole new order of things.
Austrian democracy is peculiar in that it attempts to force cooperation between the major parties by making them serve in government together. This kind of bipartisan rule is central to Austria’s political stability. Unlike the British or American two-party system, where one party rules while the other waits its turn, Austria’s system is ‘consociational.’ The Parties must rule together in order to make decisions. Consensus is shaped on major issues, maintaining a centrist balance. Each party in the coalition has the power to veto the idea, ensuring that no single ideology dominates. In practice, this means 1. the same parties generally win, and 2. they are both relatively centrist.
This was designed partly to avoid instability of the first Republic. After the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was undressed. What remained was a tiny country that was deeply divided, Austria. There was the conservative countryside and ‘Red Vienna’ controlled by the Social Democrats. Tensions flared in Austria not just in elections, but also in government. Violence emerged between the paramilitary groups of each side leading to the 1934 civil war. An anti-liberal Chancellor formed a one-party state, entering a phase known as Austro-fascism.
When you check out the chart above again, you will find that this was relatively successful. Two parties might have dominated, but they more or less ruled together. But this began to crack in the 1980s/1990s. The FPO surged as a populist, anti-establishment force. And the Greens sprouted. The result was that the distribution of votes began to fragment.
2. The Rise of the FPO
The FPO is not new to Austrian politics. Founded in 1956, its first leader was a former Nazi member and SS Officer. But it’s policies were not necessarily far-right.
In the 1970s, the party positioned itself as the “party of the progressive centre” based on christian-social values. But under the leadership of Jörg Haider in the 1980s, the party took a sharp turn to the right, embracing a populist, nationalist platform. The core message focused on the classic right-wing populist spread— euro-scepticism, immigration control, and a rejection of political elites.
The FPO first joined a governing coalition in the 1980s as a minority partner to the SPO - the left-wing centrists. As they turned right, they aligned more with the conservatives. But they were never big enough, and were always the last piece to get one of the mainstream parties into power. As Austria integrated further into the EU, the party capitalised on those dissatisfied with the results since. In the most recent election, they pressed hard on the issues of immigration and economic anxieties, bundling it up against the EU. Their slogan this election was: “Stop EU craziness.”
3. Stagnation and political fragmentation
Austria’s economic situation has also played a role in the rise of populism. While the country boasts a high GDP per capita, economic growth has been sluggish for decades. Since 1995, Austria’s growth rate has averaged just 0.40% annually. More recently, Austria’s large industrial sector (~25% of GDP) has been hit particularly hard with rising energy prices in 2023. Last year, the country was in recession as inflation remained high. So, when you take that all together, no wonder many voters might have concerns about the country’s economic future.
The Greens also came along in 1986. In their first proper election they actually became the first of the political successful environmental parties at the time. Having refused to form coalitions with the conservative OVP, they did not get the chance to join a coalition for a while. It was finally in 2019, with the green wave, that they managed to get into power. They did so in partnership with the conservatives. This created an interesting mix. The right-wing chancellor made a promise about this fun coalition: that it will “protect both the climate and the borders.”
4. Conclusion
It’s definitely relevant that the FPO is now leading the election results. But it’s not because it might enter power. This has already happened, and many times before. The real story is the end of an era for Austria’s mainstream parties. For the time in the Second Republic, neither the SPO or the OVP finished first. This is a major earthquake.
Austria’s democracy is not at risk. It is quite good at putting unlikely parties together and making them govern. I doubt that this will change. But as the dominance of the traditional parties is broken, there is no certainty that they will remain. Will four to five big parties now compete? Or will two parties emerge to dominate elections in the future as it had in the past.
What’s clear, however, is that Austria’s political landscape has fundamentally changed.
In other news
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MP resigns over “greed and power” of Labour Government. (BBC News). Power really has a halo effect.
Germany: Chinese national arrested on suspicion of spying (DW)