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Last Tuesday, Ukraine invaded Russia. With a small force of some 1,000 men, it made its way at least 10 kilometers into the Kursk Oblast, a rather overlooked corner of the ongoing conflict. It is a successful operation which represents the most notable territorial gain since the whole thing hit a bit of a standstill back in later 2022.
Yet, the entire affair seems to have slipped quietly under the stage lights, perhaps overshadowed by the spectacle of Tom Cruise gracefully descending from a stadium roof during last night’s closing ceremony in Paris. It’s as if the whole Ukrainian crisis has slowly slid down the pecking order of our awareness. The Olympic jubilee and the electoral drama in the US seem to have occupied the spotlight
But let me give you two reasons to care about Ukraine’s new efforts. It swells the tide of war in a way that may threaten its western allies; yet within this escalation lies the hope that Ukraine will be better prepared to negotiate terms of peace, and, importantly, without undermining its means of defense.
A Serious Escalation
The recent Ukrainian incursion marks an historic moment. It is the first instance of Russia's own sovereign territory coming under direct attack since the Second World War. (For a better view of the military goings-on, do see this article from Phillip O’brien). This breach was almost certainly executed with the aid of Western-supplied weaponry, crossing a grave red line that President Putin had previously drawn. Recall, in 2022, during the early pangs of the conflict when Russia annexed the Ukrainian city of Kherson, Putin issued a warning:
"If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing," (Sky News)
This latest event is not just another military offensive; it is a provocation with far-reaching implications. Putin's earlier statement carried an implicit threat of nuclear retaliation, a message that was clear to many. Yet, as time has passed, that red line has become increasingly blurred. Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson, just weeks after the warning, did not trigger the expected catastrophe. This time, with Ukraine pushing its offensive into Russia's sovereign territory, we see an act that dangerously tests the boundaries of that original threat. The situation has grown more precarious, and the potential consequences more dire.
It might be entirely appropriate to harshly criticize the use of Western weaponry in a way that recklessly flirts with the threat of nuclear catastrophe hanging over us. This same alarm can be directed towards western leadership. Ukraine’s main allies were quite likely to know of the operation, and possibly offered their specific approval. As news of the operations success spread, many voiced their positive support. The European Commission's spokesperson declared that Ukraine had a “legitimate right” to defend itself, even if that meant doing so inside Russia. Similar endorsements came from the German Foreign Ministry, with approving signals from the Pentagon as well.
This marks not only a notable shift in the policies of Ukraine’s key allies, but also the approval of a major escalation of the war, which appears undiscussed in public debate.
Talk Of Peace
Now, let us turn our attention to the strategic intentions behind Ukraine's latest offensive. Naturally, it’s bound to push Russia’s lines and strain their war efforts, all to Ukraine’s benefit. At the heart of the matter lies the pursuit of strategic leverage. As luck would have it, the Washington Post chaps cited an unnamed adviser to Zelensky, who summed it all up: “This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia - this is what it’s all about.” This could be a hint, following Ukraine’s recent attempts to organise a peace summit later this year.
There is no accident as to why this is. Time, you see, is on Russia’s side. The grand support that the West has so far mustered for Ukraine will dwindle as the patience of its allies wears thin—not just among the leaders, but among the population especially if other domestic concerns take over. And as that support dwindles, so too will Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Russia, with its vast resources and authoritarian state, can blindly keep up the pressure, bit by bit, while Ukraine struggles to hold the line. Ukrainians and their leaders are not blind to this fact, either. A recent survey showed that most of them are in favor of peace talks. Don’t be misled; it doesn’t mean they’re necessarily willing to give away what Russia has taken from them. It’s a tricky situation with time running out.
This leads us to another obstacle. Ukraine has precious few cards to play at the negotiation table. Back in March 2022, the so-called talks were little more than Russia’s demand for Ukraine’s surrender. Later, in April that same year, talks mediated by Turkey led nowhere, as Russia insisted on Ukraine ceding the occupied territories. Offering peace is not without consequence either. If Ukraine’s allies call for peace, pressing Ukraine, it would only serve to weaken its military position. With doubt cast on its military supplies, it would find itself in an increasingly precarious spot, with fewer options and far less leverage to defend its interests.
But if Ukraine can occupy Russian territory, it might just have a bargaining chip to exchange for its own land. It is a high-stakes gamble, no doubt, and one that could seriously backfire. It would not only improve its position in negotiating peace with Russia, but it could also accelerate its possibility. As Andreas Umland pointed out in Foreign Policy:
… in terms of Russian elite and popular perception, the restoration of Russia’s legitimate state territory will take precedence over continued occupation of recently conquered domains—especially if a land swap opens an avenue to the end of Western sanctions.
Ukraine’s offensive, outdone by Olympic fireworks, is a bold move that also escalates the conflict. It dangerously flirts with Russia’s nuclear threats, imperiling Ukraine’s allies. Yet, despite of the risks, it might hasten the prospect of peace for what is now a war of attrition.