An autographed manuscript of Chopin’s Etude in C sharp minor, Op. 10. No. 4 (torrent) for piano. (Chopin Museum, Poland). Listen here.
Dear Friend of the Europe Letter,
I am tickled to inform you we’ve had a delightful ‘up’ in subscribers. To celebrate, I will arrange a firework display outside the Brixton KFC. But rest assured, I shall continue to provide you with the best news and analysis.
Since it’s Friday, this week’s news...
[1] Ukraine’s daring offensive into Russia last week continued successfully. Ukraine has captured more than 80 settlements in the Kursk region, of which six were taken only in the last day. Russia has had to pull troops out of Ukraine to defend itself. In our last issue, we warned that (1) this was a significant escalation of the conflict in the direction of nuclear exchange. Since the offensive started, Russia increased pressure on the southern fronts. (2) This expedition will strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position. With Russian land under their control, they might be able to claw back territory currently controlled by Russia. Only yesterday, Putin’s ally, Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, called for negotiations saying: “Let’s sit down at the negotiating table” to end the conflict.
[2] Germany has done it—they’ve issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian fellow they suspect blew up that big gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea back in 2022. Now, before Russia invaded Ukraine, that pipeline was important, carrying 40% of Russia’s gas exports to Europe. After the explosion, chaps were pointing fingers in every direction. Even Trump, who was president then, was asked about it in an interview. In surprising restraint, he stated: "Well, I don't want to get our country in trouble, so I won't answer that."
Well, it seems now that Ukraine was behind it all. With their need for German support, Ukraine had every reason to rattle Germany’s energy reliance on Russia. The Wall Street Journal two days ago dropped a bombshell (underwater) with their investigation, uncovering the following:
Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off (WSJ, Aug 14 2024)
With hindsight, we are now afforded the amusement of revisiting past statements made in the aftermath of the explosion. The veneer of truth for many of these seems to have become somewhat, let’s say, dulled.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said the leaks were “nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards EU” (FT, Sep 29 2022)
[3] About a week ago, a federal judge ruled that Google had illegally monopolised the online search market. There’s now talk that they might actually break up the whole thing. The Department of Justice pointed their legal finger at Google, accusing them of protecting their throne by throwing billions at would-be competitors just to make sure Google search was kept on phones and web browsers. In 2021 alone, Google forked over more than $26 bn to companies, like Apple, for this very purpose. Among the punishments being considered, there’s chitchat about splitting off Android OS or even Chrome web services. Google said it would appeal the ruling.
Gold Watch presented to Chopin (aged 10) by Angelica Catalani. (Chopin Museum, Poland)
[4] Chipmaker bankruptcy shadows Europe’s wish to develop an independent sector. One of the few microchip manufacturers in Europe, a Chinese-owned factory in Belgium, has decided to quit. ‘BelGaN’ was founded in Belgium in the 1980s and later purchased by two Hong Kong funds in 2021. Yet this news comes a year after the EU announced it would pour €43 billion into growing Europe’s little chip industry. But it seems BelGaN had a hard time getting support, likely because of its Chinese ties. It all shows the challenge in developing a highly complex industry locally, while also limiting its trade with China.
[5] China stands as the world's largest car market, and it’s no surprise that it’s also at the forefront of the demand for electric vehicles (EVs). As you look at the charts below, consider this: (1) How does Europe’s industry compare to China’s, and (2) is EV just another wave of consumerism?
Other News …
With the Paris Olympics over, the Presidential and Left parties compete to find a majority.
UK inflation rose for the first time this year, reaching 2.2% in July.
US inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in July. Better case for Fed rate cuts in September.
$5 billion US missile sale to Germany.
First case of a mpox variant reported outside of Africa (I hold my breath with excitement)
Wojciech Weiss. Preparatory study for the painting Chopin, 1899. Charcoal on Paper. (Chopin Museum, Poland)